Super
Forecasters Disrupt Bias and Re-Write the Code by Adding Some Friction
By Linda E. Pickard Ph.D.
July 13, 2020
“The fox knows many things but the
hedgehog knows one big thing.”
/attributed
to Archilochus, Greek Poet
‘Tip-of-your-nose’ perspective
We live our
lives as perpetual forecasters. “Tip-of-your-nose” reactions and decisions
predominate, as Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner describe in Super Forecasting: The Art and Science of
Prediction. We need these speedy, intuitive forecasting beliefs and skills
to navigate through life’s moment-by-moment and long-term challenges. Otherwise,
we risk overloading our brains and our wellbeing. Efficiency via intuition
based on our accumulated life experiences allows us to be productive.
Errors in forecasting
When an
aspect of our intuition is an outdated ideology in certain situations, causing
a descent into hedgehog status, it’s time for an update. Super forecasters know
the perils of personal ideology and ‘group think’. Tasked with peering into the
present or the future to estimate the probability of something being or
becoming a reality, they disrupt their intuitive knowledge by pursuing a
‘dragonfly perspective’.
Perpetual beta
The eyes of
dragonflies see in almost every direction at the same time enabling them to
capture insects at high speeds. Building on this analogy for improving
thinking, super forecasters first note their own view and then test its
veracity by seeking out many views. Tapping into the ‘wisdom of the crowd’, they
aggregate the views of many who have different bits of information about an
issue, reflect on the findings and then update their prior beliefs accordingly
as probabilities. By deliberately checking out the accuracy of their viewpoints
they add some friction to their existing ‘brain codes’. Re-writes naturally
follow, transforming the state of “I don’t’ know what I don’t know” to “Now I
know what I didn’t know”. ‘Perpetual beta’ is a way of life in a super
forecaster’s brain.
Force Fit Reflection
On a
practical level, most of us do not have the luxury in the ‘spur-of-the-moment’
situation of doing extensive research into others’ viewpoints. But we can bring
to bear some ‘on the fly’ approaches to checkmate our looming biases.
· Slow down your thinking
Use assessment tools
Jennifer
Eberhardt, a Stanford University professor of social psychology and author of Biased: Uncovering the Hidden Prejudice That
Shapes What We See, Think and Do describes in her June 2020 TED Talk that
‘friction’ helps. They can include checklists and any other tool that helps us
to reflect. For example,
based on her research, a simple three-item mental checklist for use by police enables
them to diagnose a situation quickly to determine the best course of action.
The benefits include reducing unwarranted escalation, making incorrect
assumptions and stereotyping.
In the same
vein, for decades surgeons with their teams have used checklists to avoid
errors and put the spot light on hidden blind spots. Highly productive teams,
in general, make ample use of assessments tools when formulating and testing
out the viability of a possible future scenario, the pathway to it and what
might go wrong if enacted.
Activate the here and now (H&N) response
This strategy
builds on Thinking, Fast and Slow described
by Daniel Kahneman in his Nobel Prize winning research with partner Amos
Tversky about biases. The metaphors of two systems 1 (intuitive, fast thinking)
and 2 (deliberate, slower, reflective thinking) illustrate a vital brain
partnership (emotional and rational). System 1 scans the future in microseconds.
It is a probability sensor drawing on all of our life experiences in search of
an appropriate action. In the absence of friction and complete information,
System 1 estimates the probability of a match of our current brain codes or
algorithms with the challenge confronting us. In milliseconds, we think and act
accordingly rewarding System 1 (“I’m right!”).
Under certain
circumstances, System 2’s role is to spark a re-think of System 1’s thoughts
and actions. But, it needs our conscious invitation to challenge System 1.That invitation
means a switch in time (in 1-2 seconds) and space (to the present).
Daniel Z.
Lieberman and Michael E. Long in their book The
Molecule of More describe the shift to being present-oriented as H&N
(Here and Now). Mindfulness training is one useful tool. It activates being in
the moment. For example, in the context of an irritating situation, take three
deep breaths or count to three. With time to think, System 2 (H&N) provides
a rescue exit from a potentially inappropriate response.
Like a pebble
in a pond, the more we use the H&N response (with any mind tool that snaps our
attention to the present not the future), the more valuable it becomes. Our robust
thinking continues to strengthen in multiple other situations threatening not
only our peace of mind but also our sensible mind. In effect we each become a
self-styled scientist collecting feedback data on ourselves and correcting as we
go. The late K. Anders Ericsson, eminent researcher on expertness, would label
the approach as ‘deliberate practice’.
Practice ‘Active Open Mindedness’
(AOM)
Slow down your ‘refutation mode’
Think about
all the disagreements you have had in the last six months or so in a team or
otherwise. What percentage of the time do you think you were right? Most of us
answer 50% or more all the way up to 100%! That’s a barrier for discovering
errors in our brain codes, unleashing hitherto unknown biases.
The antidote
- slow down your ‘refutation mode’ as Alan Jacobs describes in How to Think, where listening takes a
hit. The emotional/intuitive response of “I do not agree” blocks incoming
information that may be enlightening. This telescopic thinking prevents
disrupting bias blind spots.
Instead shift
into a coach approach, asking open-ended questions. “Be interested rather than
interesting” described by Dale Carnegie in his 1936 book, How to Win Friends and Influence People. “Tell me more” is a
particularly useful approach when someone expresses an opinion that is
diametrically opposed to yours. At the least your ‘olive branch’ deepens your
understanding of another’s point-of-view, revealing in more detail key ‘friction’
points. The latter may encourage further investigation on your part. Some
common ground may emerge or you may stick to your opinion but at least you
allowed your brain the space to check its current wiring.
Boost your intellectual humility
It takes
effort to re-calibrate our beliefs, especially when we are not aware of them.
Super forecasters, scientists, highly experienced intelligence experts and
curious, open-minded people, for example, have a head start. By using a dragon
fly perspective, among other tools, they detect and correct brain errors that
were formerly invisible. Our malleable, learning brains adapt and re-code ready
to sense and predict a refreshed set of probabilities.
Humility
offsets an automatic tendency to fall into ‘refutation mode’. None of us can
rest on our laurels. Our ‘tip-of-the-nose’ intuitions are confident drivers of
our lives. But equating competence with confidence is an illusion. Competence
is always in ‘perpetual beta’.
In the spirit
of checklists, Daniel Pink in his June 9, 2020 Pinkcast, How to boost your intellectual humility, drew attention to four
questions from Warren Berger’s The Book
of Beautiful Questions. They
can challenge our assumptions (provide friction), guiding us to different
perspectives. In reality, how we answer each of the following questions depends on the situation:
- Do I think like a soldier (defend) or a scout (explore)?
- Would I rather be right or better understand? (as in Stephen Covey's classic first book - 7 Habits of Highly Successful People, avoiding short-term victory that may undercut long-term knowledge)
- Do I solicit and seek opposing views? (If you disagree, tell me why)
- Do I enjoy the present surprise of discovery if I am mistaken? (something new)
·
How you think interrupts what you
think
Know thyself by thinking with others
From ancient
times to now “know thyself” is a
common refrain with the promise of greater life satisfaction and personal
effectiveness. It is a call to self-improvement and learning by poets,
philosophers, inventors, novelists, researchers, educators and leaders from all
walks of life. It hints at the mystery of the unknown – a deeper sense of our
identity that is based on our self-perceptions, how others perceive the world
and simultaneously ‘see’ us. We may resist its mystery fearing that unwanted
surprises will undermine our confidence.
On the other
hand, multiple decades of research on super forecasters by Phil Tetlock and his
associates consistently reveal that “know thyself” rewards can be a boost to
wellbeing enhancing a sense of control in a universe full of uncertainty. Accuracy
improvement in assessing the probability of a future occurrence is the ultimate
reward for super forecasters. But this is achieved only if they follow one key
principle of improvement – focus on how you think rather than what
you think.
Super
forecasters recognize that uncertainty is impossible to eliminate. At the same
time, nuggets of evidence from many sources build resilience for withstanding
and adapting to the next ‘surprise’ including changes in society’s view of
appropriate behaviour.
Embrace hard ‘sleuthing’ work
The label of
unconscious bias presumes we ‘don’t know what we don’t know’. But it is not an
impermeable barrier if we open our minds to different realities from our own.
That requires hard sleuthing work on our part using tools already in our tool
boxes with familiar names like ‘active listening’, ‘mindfulness’, ‘conflict
management’, ‘coaching’ and research. Used intentionally, the data generated by
the tools in various contexts reveal deeper insights about thought patterns and
behaviours in need of a ‘tune-up’. The mystery surrounding our biases is not
solved by asking – “What are they?” but instead, “How am I going to discover
them?”
The power of auto-feedback
We can train
ourselves to ‘see’ as dragonflies do. Various tools with which we are already
familiar provide the necessary ‘friction’ for discovering hidden habits of
mind. By slowing down our thinking to boost self-reflection, being open to and
seeking others’ viewpoints and resisting the ‘refutation mode’ as our automatic
default reaction, we can disrupt and make visible outdated brain algorithms. The
rewards are great. The world of ‘perpetual beta’ makes more robust our ‘tip-of-the-nose’
knowledge while boosting our social acumen. The journey is transformational.
But many
studies highlight that the environments in which we experience the world play a
huge role in bias awareness. Supportive, equitable and inclusive environments
in a team, organization and society make the personal task of dragon fly bias
interruption considerably easier. A culture of caring elevates feeling
psychologically safe – being heard, included and respected for one’s expertise
and views. That feeds a virtuous cycle of openness to change.
Counter-intuitively,
massive upheaval, as we are experiencing with COVID-19, has provided ‘friction’
challenging systems and attitudes. The pandemic has starkly revealed where
change must happen to correct inequities and the leadership needed. It has made
evident the best of human nature, one person at a time - hence the value of
working on our super forecasting skills.
A caveat –
chronically negative environments are not conducive to improving our blind
spots. In the face of little hope, survival in the form of ‘us’ versus ‘them’ rises
to the forefront, reinforcing stereotypes and exacerbating long-standing
grievances.
“Thinking: the power to
be finely aware and richly responsible.”
/Alan Jacobs, How to Think, p.49.
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